Weather NJ
Jonathan Carr on 08/16/2019

Summery but Slightly Unsettled (Aug 16-18)

Discussion: The upper-level jet should remain flat and zonal across the region with no major jet streaks to contend with. By the end of the weekend/start of next week we might see a split-flow pattern emerge just to our W however that should only preserve the heat and humidity as upper-level ridging

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/12/2019

Talking Thunderstorms (Aug 13-16)

Discussion: We’re going to do the weekly outlook and Tuesday thunderstorm discussion in a single article. Today we saw elevated levels of humidity return after a pleasant weekend. And when I say pleasant I mostly mean the humidity. I realize it still popped into the 80s on Saturday and Sunday. But d

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/08/2019

Dry and Pleasant (Aug 9-11)

Discussion: A mostly dry cold front will push through NJ tonight through tomorrow morning. A few showers and even boomers are possible, from now through tonight along the front, but likely non-severe. We’re then in for a real treat this weekend weather-wise. High pressure is expected to move out of

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/07/2019

Aug 7: Thunderstorm Discussion

Discussion: A cold front will push through NJ this evening between about 5pm and 10pm. It hardly makes sense to use the word cold in cold front because all it will do is take temps and dews down a few degrees at most. But it will provide enough of a lifting mechanism to enhance thunderstorms across

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/05/2019

Summery (Aug 5-9)

Discussion: Real quick, that’s my beautiful wife and I at the beach. The other night we were able to sneak over to Long Beach Island and leverage some pre-sunset “golden hour” lighting. Our baby girl is due any day now and we can’t wait to meet her! Now back to the weather…The warm, humid and unsett

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/01/2019

Not as Hot but Still Unsettled (Aug 2-4)

Discussion: The E Pacific/W US setup should continue to produce a +PNA (ridging) signal. This translates downstream to either a flat jet across the Mid-Atlantic US or quick-moving positive-axis trough. This should prevent us from getting crazy hot but keep the region mildly unsettled. No widespread

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/01/2019

August 2019 WeatherTrends360 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of July 2019 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/31/2019

July 31: Thunderstorms are Building

Discussion: The Bermuda high is currently eroding and slipping to the E. Another area of high pressure is currently over the Great Lakes and will track across the NE US towards the Gulf of Maine (passing by to our N from W to E). The front side anti-cyclonic flow of the high will push a front throug

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/29/2019

Warm and Unsettled (July 29-Aug 2)

Discussion: The most important pattern recognition I see is the persistent Bermuda high and the high that should establish ~centered near New Mexico. These highs are spaced adequately to allow upper-level cyclonic flow between them (cyclonic between two anti-cyclonic air masses) over the general E U

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/27/2019

Warm and Summery (July 27-28)

Discussion: Upper-level height changes indicate the trough is gone. Fizzled away by the passage of weak high pressure. The front side of the high (N flow) provided some much needed relief this week after the unbearable heat and humidity last weekend. Now we’ll deal with the backside of the high (ret

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/22/2019

Storms to Break the Heat (July 22-26)

Discussion: Thursday night’s rain was the early signal of the approaching front and the lifting that surrounds such. The cold front should be slow moving over the next 24-30 hours. Monday it might only bring relief to NWNJ (down to the I-95 corridor at most). The front likely won’t clear SENJ comple

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/19/2019

Hazy Hot and Humid (July 19-21)

Discussion: When the sun sets like my photo above you know it’s going to be hot the next day. Therefore I expect to see this kind of sunset the next several evenings. The atmospheric setup is pretty straight-forward for this weekend. An upper level ridge is now building for the Mid-Atlantic and Nor

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/17/2019

July 17: T-storm & Heat Discussion

Discussion: The first order of business is tonight’s thunderstorm potential. So yes this is remnant energy leftover from Barry that dissipated over the N Gulf Coast and made it’s way through Arkansas, parts of Missouri, Kentucky, etc. and will now move through NJ tonight. We’re not “getting hit by B

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/16/2019

Heat and Humidity to Continue

Discussion: It’s time for a death ridge of heat. Tuesday and Wednesday should get toasty but they won’t represent the finale. Barry’s remnants should track over our region in the Wednesday night-Thursday morning time period. This could produce anything from routine showers and thunderstorms to a sev

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/13/2019

Clear and Summery (July 13-14)

Discussion: The storm front pushed off the SENJ coast early this morning. Unfortunately there was not much relief from the heat and humidity. This time a year that is common for cold fronts. I felt about .06% relief for a few hours earlier today. We’re now set up for a long stretch of heat and humid

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/11/2019

Jul 11: Thunderstorms Arriving

Discussion: Thunderstorms are arriving from SW to NE along and just NW of the I-95 corridor. Initial activity moving into NWNJ is weak sauce but some stronger storms are moving out of the Baltimore/Wilmington area towards Philadelphia and Trenton. Most daylight activity today should be confined to W

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/10/2019

July 10: What Barry Means for NJ

Discussion: If you follow weather beyond the Garden State of New Jersey you know that a tropical system is forming in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Primary impacts (high winds, flooding rain and storm surge/tide) from this tropical development (soon to be named Barry) should occur near coastal Louisi

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/07/2019

Nice Start but Humidity to Return (July 8-12)

Discussion: Onshore flow, from the developing high to our N/NW, has provided some relief today. That coastal I was watching should pass just to the S of NJ tonight through tomorrow morning. For that reason a few showers and thunderstorms could be around for Monday morning’s AM commute especially for

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/05/2019

July 2019 Discussion with WeatherTrends360

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of July 2019 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/02/2019

Florida in New Jersey (July 2-7)

Discussion: The pattern seems pretty locked this week. If you are familiar with Florida weather then you should have a good idea what to expect. Basically every day will reach summery-warm temperatures (at least 80s everywhere 90s away from the ocean). Most of each day should be partly-to-mostly sun

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 06/28/2019

Warm and Unsettled (June 28-30)

Discussion: Upper-level ridging will temporarily give way to a shortwave/ULL between Sunday-Tuesday. That will eventually cool us off a little at the surface. But from now through Sunday morning the heat and humidity should remain. The dynamics Saturday, especially Saturday afternoon/early-evening,

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 06/24/2019

And the Livin’s Easy (June 24-28)

Discussion: It’s summertime to further explain the article title. Those of you who never start no static will get it. The week starts with a decaying trough to our NW. The bottom-rounding energy will power a frontal passage of rain (maybe thunderstorms) between Monday PM hours and midday Tuesday. Af

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 06/21/2019

Marvelous Conditions (June 21-23)

Discussion: Give it until early-afternoon Friday for rain to clear out. If all goes well it might clear by late-morning. The rain, maybe a few boomers, will be from energy departing with the developed surface low to our NE. After that (~noon on Friday and beyond) an area of high pressure will dive s

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 06/17/2019

Unsettled and Stormy (June 17-21)

Discussion: The upper-level jet looks fairly flat and zonal through the N Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast US. Upper-level geopotential height anomalies appear neutral to slightly-below average. Basically a frontal boundary is going to drape and stall through the Mid-Atlantic US this week allowing the cha

  Jonathan Carr